Looks the bank prediction similar as my prediction I did a couple of months ago ( Nov of Last year )
like I said, NZ housing market is not simple domestic matter, all international events could affect NZ housing market seriously
RBNZ head resigned and what would monetary policies be?
In view of covid 19 lesson, Government is afraid of downturn of economy due to lockdown and Monetary policies were loosen accordingly
Because Labor party took adminstration by end of 2017, issue lots of negative policies to slow down the housing market e.g. extend bright light test , ban oversea buyers etc
In 2019, business confidence reached historical low at that period
Lots of developers were reluctant to build the houses any more which resulted in the shortage between 2020-2021
How many land and house packages were sold during 2020-2021?
Why people chose to buy land and house package? Demand is much higher than supply
And now , developers were suffering from the loss on the projects and contribution and buliding costs are going higher which could reduce the apetitie of developers to build more houses until the extra costs could be covered by extra selling price.
This shortage is inevitable
Especially ,West Auckland has been categorized in controlled area due to wasterwater capacity restriction.
All current brand new houses stocks could be sold out within 1 year and new stock might be reduced accordingly , especially in Auckland.
Will see whether I would be right again.
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