Inflation is under control and economy need be rebooted
Government doesn’t have money to make ends meet
NZ economy scale is small, if governmetn won’t play stupid action to piss off the main trader partner
NZ economy would be easier to be rebooted accordingly.
Rate cut is one of measurements and we should see by end of this year whether economy would be getting better.
Reference:
Currently the housing stock is getting more and more, but you could check otu the details of new stocks.
Large numbers of townhouses projects , Agents list all the houses in the projects on the market which boost the stock level.
houses with sections including crosslease title are not too many
In view of international events, Trade war 2.0 from Trump would be inevitable
The difference this time is that most of countries would fight back against USA instead of compromising accordingly because economy of most countries is in dire straits
There is no compromising space anymore.
Canada and Mexico are facing the threat of tariff from USA and they said they might fight back or be looking for the new trade partners.
USA put 10% tariff on Chinese products and China fighted back straightway within 1 day for 10-15 % tariff on USA agricultural products and put some USA tech and weapon companies into the untrusted entity list
China also put 100% tariff on some Canadian products as the penalty for Canada put 100% on Chinese EV cars.
More captical might run away from USA and flood into political stable countries, e.g. Singapore etc
PM is working on attracting more investments for NZ infrastructure, but some people are opposing it becaues they think foreigh investment might erode NZ rights.
In my opinion, the right political control on the foreign investment would inject the positive stimulus into NZ economy instead of fearing the oversea investment, but Government needs to be smart, not like ACT, he wants to privatize education and health care, WHICH could damage kiwis lifestyle.
In current NZ situation, the further cuts would be inevitable to step out of the recession trap and boost the economy to create more jobs through more businesses instead of following USA to play trade war accordingly.
If by mid of this year, another 50-75bp could be cut, OCR would be drop between 3-3.25. Interest rate would be reaching 4-4.5% accordingly
Any small spark on the economy , housing market would be getting better.
I think by mid of this year, the housing market would be stablized accordingly and by the end of this year ( 2025), market would be reaching level of OCT 2020
This time would be much different than 2020-2021, due to high demand on the housing and less developers would like to build more, more costs on development
2026-2027 housing price might be returned back to 2020-2021 range.
* International events might be affecting NZ market.
Recent update
– Syria is in domestic chaos （ domestic war and race genocide)
– Houthi movement sent the Ultimatum to Israel to grant the clearance on the rescue goods to Gazza within 4 days, otherwise they will attack Israel and any ships related to Israel again.
– Israel bomb lebanon again
– China has sent the clear massage after USA secrateary of defense said USA is ready to have war with China about China will fight against USA until the end.
– USA and South Korea will have military drill close to north Korea who said USA and south korea will regret what they plan to do
– USA is trying to cooridnate with its alliance to block The Strait of Malacca which won’t be allowed by China and conflicts might be happening soon.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations won’t join in USA this time.
– Russia has surrounded 10,000 Ukraine soliders and NATO mercenary in Kurskaya Oblast
In reference to the covid period , when world is in chaos, NZ would be one of best the countries to escape including overea kiwis ( 1m kiwis are staying oversea)
If kiwis start to return to NZ, housing issues would be enlarged accordingly although some kiwis are heading Australia at moment. But NZ is small country , can’t hold too many influx of immigrant or population
Especially for Auckland, in reference of Covid period, 53% of returning kiwis stayed in Auckland.
By 2030, Auckland population would be increased to 2m and housing supply wont’ match this demand at any aspects
What if you are the buyer, what would you do?
Get rid of political obstacles to stop NZ to be developed with the foreign investment .
As I remember, one chinese company plans to invest one toll charge highway from millwater to highway 1 to reduce the jam on silverdale highway
What was political obstacle at that time?
Chinese company will steal the jobs from kiwis.
So this project is cancelled
How many jobs would be created and how convenient for the local residentis and businesses.
Need be wise up.
Reference:
Christopher Luxon has just one job next week – Matthew Hooton
How‘s world turbulence affecting NZ housing market?
– USA is forcing Ukraine to compromise in peace talk with Russian
– USA has decided to withdraw 20,000 soldiers from Europe
– France has promised to protect Europe by Nuclear power
– Russian wants Ukraine never to join In NATO and no western soldiers enter into Ukraine territory
– Trump is trying to grab Greenland from Danmark which is alliance with USA
– USA put 25% tariff on Canada, Mexico and EU
– Canada plan to retalliate on USA tariff and USA said they will put the harsher tariff if Canada fights back
– USA put extra 10-15% tariff on Chinese products and China fighted back straightway on USA agricultural products and put some USA entities into the blacklist.
– 100,000 government workers plan to strike in England
etc
Basically NZ has the stable political status at moment and In reference to the covid 19 period, lots of oversea rich people decided to fly to NZ and more kiwis decided to choose to come back to NZ instead of staying overseas.
If regional conflicts are getting worse, it might be happening again.
NZ government need be smart to play low profile, don’t stand any side.
World Chaos is only start , not be ended until 3 giant countries reached the balance or agreement ( China , USA and Russia).
As tiny country in comparison with first 3, NZ needs to be careful and cautious.
It’s like a short term sugar hit. It puts some more money in the government coffers but, of course, what it does is it takes an asset out of public ownership and then you’ve done it once, there’s no more money coming in and it doesn’t really resolve any of your long term problems.
Privatisation has been proved is failed policy
Check out America, why Luigi Mangione killed CEO?
Privatisation could result in misusing their services to gain more profits from the normal people who are paying the tax
Why people need pay tax and use private service instead?
To be honest, it is easy to resolve if the government would like to privatise everything,
Stop charging tax and put everything into the private operators
They don’t need to worry about anything, because we don’t need government anymore.
As the government, it should be serving the people for basic needs.
If it can’t do that, just leave and give the place to other people who can do.
ACT is good idea about stopping crimes, but I just don’t like this policies to privatise education and health care, which will make NZ to become worse and worse.
6000 per person to be spent on health care, if government thinks it could be saved if they privatise health care, it is easy, just stop charging 6000 per person tax.
Reference:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/02/12/poll-do-kiwis-support-greater-privatisation/?fbclid=IwY2xjawIeELFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHWMA8Op2w34opeyXOt__U7RNmwWk_UP1wcZdMDtr6itamQl7KTnNjvCFgg_aem_ktR9vNHdhDV9CMYSDGI0jA
Living cost in australia is not cheap like people think, might be grocery, for housing and other stuffs, it is not cheap
Due to relationship between Australia and China, Australia economy might be getting worse if China put any sanctions on it while it is doing the hostile policies to China at moment like morrison adminstration.
China policies are not like before, it China has started to be aggressive to the countries who plan to or doing the harm on Chinese benefits all over the world.
Thats the reason I have emphasized before NZ government needs to stay sobber to keep the good relationship with China while we have free trade treaty.
Recent Cartoon Movie Nezha achieve close to 10b Chinese currency ( still increasing) to become the top 1 on single market all over the world
CHINA has the huge consumption market which NZ needs to export nz products to china and it is quire hard to find the replacement.
Recent Comments