Category

Housing Market

Mar 14
0

Lockdown Predictions: How I Nailed the Housing Market Forecast

By | Housing Market | No Comments

It is better to restate the same story from covid 19 period

The buyer inquiried about one of my listings during level 4 lockdown period.

I have explained to him in detail and what’s my foreseeing on Auckland housing market.

Although he didn’t believe me at the point instead of trusting the economists who said the housing market would drop further down 20-30%, but eventually whatever I told him was accurate

The market became crazier in 2021.

Always tell the buyers and vendors about pschological preference when you are in different position.

As the frontline worker, I am seeing more update information and movement than any of buyers and vendors.

That’s the reason that lots of developers and investors need my helps to instruct them to do the investment and projects.

Except the townhouses , you might not be able to see lots of properties below 800k soon.

One brick and tile property in Kelston entered into multi offer within 7 days with 7 live offers

25k is more than CV.

More properties were sold above the CV and I am seeing more multi offers and pre auction offers notification from internal email system.

This week, Barfoot and Thompson Sold 340 houses ,which was increased from 200 houses per week.

Although less buyers in market go through the open homes, but houses were sold steadily.

In view of NZ economic situation, OCR might be cut further down along with deposit interest rate.

PM starts to attract oversea investors and rich immigrants which could add more fire to bring NZ back on track from recession.

When economy is getting better and unemployment rate is getting lower. It is inevitable for the people to buy the houses again.

And then if Demand is beyond the supply like 2020-2021, housing price would be skyrocketed again.

In 2021, median price is 1.25m and now median price is 1.05m

From the banks prediction , housing price might be increased between 6-7%, some banks think it would be between 3-4%

As the first home buyers, if you would have the chance to secure the houses, try to have one instead of waiting.

Your affordability would be decreased along with the housing price drop,which means your affordability might be still not enough to buy a house while the housing value is going down.

In another aspect, if the housing price is going up , you might spend more than you should spend now, because you need have a house through fight.

Mar 14
0

ANZ Cuts Stress Test Rate: Is the Economy Set to Reboot Over Housing?

By | Housing Market | No Comments

ANZ has dropped stress testing rate from 7.65% to 7.2%

What if DTI could be changed back to LVR?

What if Less restrictions would be put on the banks?

Housing might be second thing to be considered by the government

NOW economy is the priority for the government to reboot.

Reference
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/official-cash-rate/how-adrian-orrs-departure-from-the-reserve-bank-could-both-benefit-banks-and-lift-ocr/5PAQIKY44JG27BH4CB7FE4FVRQ/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJAtcBleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRHYDKvLgbeNihYUOp-dzscwmxljtkOk9ETLbkxsafOJLCVjfR7WksVnLQ_aem_umu6BVawePjNoDGkgGjHNQ#google_vignette

Mar 14
0

Steady Sales, Stable Prices: The Future of the Housing Market

By | Housing Market | No Comments

Housing market wont increased dramatically but it would be consistent on the increase.

When sales and price are stable, market would be lifted slowly.

Reference:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/03/10/what-will-happen-to-house-prices-this-year-major-bank-changes-its-mind/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJAtVVleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHdCZt5CIkjYK1wXeEB9GiqdlJrfAbZyRj3CB4FYDuwgP244XkFWy9yKvaw_aem_acADerSJtfLr7no15NAQ4g

Mar 14
0

Global Trade Wars & NZ Housing: The Domino Effect on Your Dream Home

By | Economy, Housing Market | No Comments

Currently the housing stock is getting more and more, but you could check otu the details of new stocks.

Large numbers of townhouses projects , Agents list all the houses in the projects on the market which boost the stock level.

houses with sections including crosslease title are not too many

In view of international events, Trade war 2.0 from Trump would be inevitable

The difference this time is that most of countries would fight back against USA instead of compromising accordingly because economy of most countries is in dire straits

There is no compromising space anymore.

Canada and Mexico are facing the threat of tariff from USA and they said they might fight back or be looking for the new trade partners.

USA put 10% tariff on Chinese products and China fighted back straightway within 1 day for 10-15 % tariff on USA agricultural products and put some USA tech and weapon companies into the untrusted entity list

China also put 100% tariff on some Canadian products as the penalty for Canada put 100% on Chinese EV cars.

More captical might run away from USA and flood into political stable countries, e.g. Singapore etc

PM is working on attracting more investments for NZ infrastructure, but some people are opposing it becaues they think foreigh investment might erode NZ rights.

In my opinion, the right political control on the foreign investment would inject the positive stimulus into NZ economy instead of fearing the oversea investment, but Government needs to be smart, not like ACT, he wants to privatize education and health care, WHICH could damage kiwis lifestyle.

In current NZ situation, the further cuts would be inevitable to step out of the recession trap and boost the economy to create more jobs through more businesses instead of following USA to play trade war accordingly.

If by mid of this year, another 50-75bp could be cut, OCR would be drop between 3-3.25. Interest rate would be reaching 4-4.5% accordingly

Any small spark on the economy , housing market would be getting better.

I think by mid of this year, the housing market would be stablized accordingly and by the end of this year ( 2025), market would be reaching level of OCT 2020

This time would be much different than 2020-2021, due to high demand on the housing and less developers would like to build more, more costs on development

2026-2027 housing price might be returned back to 2020-2021 range.

* International events might be affecting NZ market.

Recent update

– Syria is in domestic chaos （ domestic war and race genocide)

– Houthi movement sent the Ultimatum to Israel to grant the clearance on the rescue goods to Gazza within 4 days, otherwise they will attack Israel and any ships related to Israel again.

– Israel bomb lebanon again

– China has sent the clear massage after USA secrateary of defense said USA is ready to have war with China about China will fight against USA until the end.

– USA and South Korea will have military drill close to north Korea who said USA and south korea will regret what they plan to do

– USA is trying to cooridnate with its alliance to block The Strait of Malacca which won’t be allowed by China and conflicts might be happening soon.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations won’t join in USA this time.

– Russia has surrounded 10,000 Ukraine soliders and NATO mercenary in Kurskaya Oblast

In reference to the covid period , when world is in chaos, NZ would be one of best the countries to escape including overea kiwis ( 1m kiwis are staying oversea)

https://www.stats.govt.nz/…/about-100000-new-zealand…

If kiwis start to return to NZ, housing issues would be enlarged accordingly although some kiwis are heading Australia at moment. But NZ is small country , can’t hold too many influx of immigrant or population

Especially for Auckland, in reference of Covid period, 53% of returning kiwis stayed in Auckland.

By 2030, Auckland population would be increased to 2m and housing supply wont’ match this demand at any aspects

What if you are the buyer, what would you do?

Mar 08
0

Will Loosening Bank Rules Ignite NZ’s Housing Market Boom?

By | Housing Market | No Comments

Quote ” Finance Minister Nicola Willis is receiving advice on how she can compel the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to change the way it regulates banks.

She believes loosening the RBNZ’s controversial capital rules, which former Governor Adrian Orr was a fierce defender of, could boost the economy.”

Loosen the restriction on the banks would add fire into the housing market?

Might be , might not

But first thing first, to save the economy and housing market will be following.

Reference:
Nicola Willis gets advice on overriding Reserve Bank’s bank capital rules championed by Adrian Orr

Mar 08
0

NZ Housing Market: Why My Predictions Are Proving True Again

By | Housing Market | No Comments

Looks the bank prediction similar as my prediction I did a couple of months ago ( Nov of Last year )

like I said, NZ housing market is not simple domestic matter, all international events could affect NZ housing market seriously

RBNZ head resigned and what would monetary policies be?

In view of covid 19 lesson, Government is afraid of downturn of economy due to lockdown and Monetary policies were loosen accordingly

Because Labor party took adminstration by end of 2017, issue lots of negative policies to slow down the housing market e.g. extend bright light test , ban oversea buyers etc

In 2019, business confidence reached historical low at that period

Lots of developers were reluctant to build the houses any more which resulted in the shortage between 2020-2021

How many land and house packages were sold during 2020-2021?

Why people chose to buy land and house package? Demand is much higher than supply

And now , developers were suffering from the loss on the projects and contribution and buliding costs are going higher which could reduce the apetitie of developers to build more houses until the extra costs could be covered by extra selling price.

This shortage is inevitable

Especially ,West Auckland has been categorized in controlled area due to wasterwater capacity restriction.

All current brand new houses stocks could be sold out within 1 year and new stock might be reduced accordingly , especially in Auckland.

Will see whether I would be right again.

Mar 08
0

Global Chaos and NZ’s Housing Market: What’s the Connection?

By | Economy, Housing Market | No Comments

How‘s world turbulence affecting NZ housing market?

– USA is forcing Ukraine to compromise in peace talk with Russian

– USA has decided to withdraw 20,000 soldiers from Europe

– France has promised to protect Europe by Nuclear power

– Russian wants Ukraine never to join In NATO and no western soldiers enter into Ukraine territory

– Trump is trying to grab Greenland from Danmark which is alliance with USA

– USA put 25% tariff on Canada, Mexico and EU

– Canada plan to retalliate on USA tariff and USA said they will put the harsher tariff if Canada fights back

– USA put extra 10-15% tariff on Chinese products and China fighted back straightway on USA agricultural products and put some USA entities into the blacklist.

– 100,000 government workers plan to strike in England

etc

Basically NZ has the stable political status at moment and In reference to the covid 19 period, lots of oversea rich people decided to fly to NZ and more kiwis decided to choose to come back to NZ instead of staying overseas.

If regional conflicts are getting worse, it might be happening again.

NZ government need be smart to play low profile, don’t stand any side.

World Chaos is only start , not be ended until 3 giant countries reached the balance or agreement ( China , USA and Russia).

As tiny country in comparison with first 3, NZ needs to be careful and cautious.

Feb 16
0

Dropping Rates, Rising Investors? What’s Next for NZ Property?

By | Housing Market | No Comments

Will investors come back to market soon while interest rate is dropping?

Testing rate is cut and interest rate is dropped

What else to stop the investors ?

National is boosting the foreigh investment into NZ market.

Infrastructure and housing investments are huge industry to do investment accordingly

Let’s see what housing market is heading to?

Reference:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/asb-drops-some-mortgage-rates/6JRGAVF6MFHR7L5E3XEDCATJQQ/?fbclid=IwY2xjawIeFCJleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHVS3ZzgT-HyKw6F9U5XCRH9keofxcEhQ7ZJiLB3KcyNl8JEJgrOTE5HS4Q_aem_G-2QsWqAyWRqfanu4IlNig

Feb 16
1

NZ Real Estate: Why First Home Buyers Should Think Like Investors

By | First Home Buyers, Housing Market | No Comments

I shared this article before and I saw this article was spreaded in one First home buyer community in facebook

I agreed 50% of this article, but not 100%.

NZ real estate is quite complicated to some extent due to geo graphic features, materials, neighborhood, future development, bonus features, hidden value etc

It resulted in one group of people : property speculator who could profit from real estate.

But most of investors are amateur and couldnt think deeper enough

Always tell my buyers “ take caution beforehand better than recify ing the issues later.

As the investors, you need consider all elements in buying a property as the investment.

But as the first home buyers, you need focus on buying a best home within your budget by using method : consider to sell it before you buy it.

If you dont have enough knowledge and find the people to help you out accordingly

As I remeber economists predicted 20-30% price decrease during First covid 19 lockdown on march 2020.

I told my buyers it wont happen at all and you could check the email which i sent to one buyer who inquired during that Period and I gave the advice to him on the basis of facts and later I was right for market trend.

Basically bottom logic for economists is poor economy situation which is the fact, national is trying to reboot the economy at moment, unless national failed and economists will be right.

20-30% value drop was predicted by economists during covid 19 and labor did ocr and lvr cut which stimulate the economy under QE effect and market was soaring even labor increased the timeframe for bright light test and took away the interest deductability which didnt stop the market until interest rate was increased And CCCFA was used mid of Dec 2021 which reduced people affordability.

Now facts are

– 165,000 one off immigrants

– friendly immigration policies

– less stocks would be Built under current economic situation

– Restriction on development from council and infrastructure which would reduce the new supply

– potential interest rate would be lowered consistently under current economical situation.

Like i said before, nature of nz housing market is productivity issue and we cant produce enough to meet the demand

Especially for Auckland, Auckland population might reach 2m by 2030 and how could we produce enough houses during this Period?

If you are the First home buyers, just buy and sit there for next round to move up.

Reference:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economist-warns-kiwis-not-to-bet-the-house-on-property-market/M7K4ZJO5HFF4ZOMIU4F4ZKPTPY/?fbclid=IwY2xjawId69xleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHVr7ZE2OFieY12PUI9UJbI8mt39zJ1nQ2ctTApvOw9dZ-pS5bA442VnXKg_aem_2iF44JYY9oIZYsLNREQeXg